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| 1 | UNITED STATES FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION
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| 2 | and
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| 3 | UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
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| 6 | SHERMAN ACT SECTION 2 JOINT HEARING
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| 7 | UNDERSTANDING SINGLE-FIRM BEHAVIOR:
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| 8 | BUSINESS HISTORY SESSION
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| 9 | BUSINESS STRATEGY SESSION
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| 10 | Thursday, October 26, 2006
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| 11 |
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| 12 |
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| 13 | HELD AT:
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| 14 | UNITED STATES FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION
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| 15 | HEADQUARTERS BUILDING, ROOM 532
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| 16 | 600 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W.
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| 17 | WASHINGTON, D.C.
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| 18 | 9:30 A.M. TO 4:00 P.M.
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| 19 |
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| 20 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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| 23 |
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| 24 | Reported and transcribed by:
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| 25 | Susanne Bergling, RMR-CLR |
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| 1 | MODERATORS:
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| 2 | KENNETH L. GLAZER
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| 3 | Deputy Director, Bureau of Competition
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| 4 | Federal Trade Commission
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| 5 | and
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| 6 | EDWARD D. ELIASBERG
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| 7 | Attorney, Antitrust Division
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| 8 | U.S. Department of Justice
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| 9 |
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| 10 | PANELISTS:
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| 11 | Morning Session:
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| 12 | Tony Allan Freyer
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| 13 | Louis Galambos
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| 14 | James P. May
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| 15 | George David Smith
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| 16 |
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| 17 | Afternoon Session:
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| 18 | Jeffrey P. McCrea
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| 19 | David J. Reibstein
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| 20 | David T. Scheffman
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| 21 | George David Smith
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| 22 |
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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| 25 | |
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| 1 | C O N T E N T S
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| 2 |
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| 3 | MORNING SESSION (BUSINESS HISTORY SESSION):
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| 4 |
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| 5 | Introduction
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| 6 | Presentations
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| 7 | Tony Allan Freyer
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| 8 | Louis Galambos
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| 9 | James P. May
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| 10 | George David Smith
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| 11 | Moderated Discussion
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| 12 | Lunch Recess
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| 13 |
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| 14 | AFTERNOON SESSION (BUSINESS STRATEGY SESSION):
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| 15 |
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| 16 | Introduction
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| 17 | Presentations
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| 18 | Jeffrey P. McCrea
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| 19 | David J. Reibstein
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| 20 | David T. Scheffman
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| 21 | George David Smith
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| 22 | Moderated Discussion
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| 23 | Conclusion
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| 24 |
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| 25 | |
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| 1 | P R O C E E D I N G S
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| 2 | - - - - -
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| 3 | MR. GLAZER: Good morning. My name is Kenneth
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| 4 | Glazer, and I am the FTC's Deputy Director for the
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| 5 | Bureau of Competition. I am one of the moderators for
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| 6 | this morning's session. My co-moderator is Ed
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| 7 | Eliasberg, Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of
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| 8 | Justice.
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| 9 | A couple of housekeeping matters before we get
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| 10 | started. First of all, please turn off all cell phones,
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| 11 | BlackBerries or other electronic devices or turn them to
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| 12 | vibrate. The men's room is immediately to the left,
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| 13 | through the double doors you just came through; the
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| 14 | women's room is to the left on the far side of the
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| 15 | elevator banks.
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| 16 | One safety tip, in the unlikely event the
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| 17 | building alarms go off, please proceed calmly and
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| 18 | quickly as instructed, and you must leave the building
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| 19 | through the stairway, which is to the right, which is
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| 20 | the Pennsylvania Avenue side. After leaving the
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| 21 | building, please follow the stream of FTC people. They
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| 22 | have practiced this many times. You will all go to the
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| 23 | Sculpture Garden, which is across the intersection of
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| 24 | Constitution Avenue.
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| 25 | Finally, we request that you not make comments |
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| 1 | or ask questions during the session. Thank you.
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| 2 | This morning's panel is entitled Business
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| 3 | History, and as the title suggests, we will be turning
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| 4 | the clocks back today and looking at some of the
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| 5 | landmark monopolization cases in the past, not the
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| 6 | recent past, as in the Microsoft case, but antitrust's
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| 7 | deep past, milestone cases such as Standard Oil, Alcoa,
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| 8 | American Tobacco and AT&T. Like the ghosts of Christmas
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| 9 | past, the ghosts of antitrust past continue to haunt us
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| 10 | in good ways and bad.
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| 11 | We have come a long way since those cases, to be
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| 12 | sure. In many ways, antitrust in the Sherman 2 area,
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| 13 | the area of unilateral conduct, is still coming to grips
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| 14 | with the issues faced by the courts in those cases,
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| 15 | which dealt with the industrial giants of their day.
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| 16 | Think, for example, of Learned Hand's Alcoa
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| 17 | decision and how to this day his enigmatic
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| 18 | pronouncements in the Alcoa case are still invoked and
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| 19 | debated. Think of "monopoly thrust upon it," "superior
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| 20 | skill, foresight, and industry," and "the successful
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| 21 | competitor, having been urged to compete, must not be
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| 22 | turned upon when he wins."
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| 23 | Take Standard Oil. One historian's view of the
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| 24 | record in that case, the Standard Oil case, led to a
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| 25 | complete rethinking of the whole area of predatory |
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| 1 | pricing. Anyone who thinks history is unimportant
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| 2 | should look at John McGee's article on Standard Oil and
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| 3 | the impact it had on the case law.
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| 4 | To help us understand this critical part of our
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| 5 | antitrust heritage, we are honored today to have with us
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| 6 | four distinguished business and legal historians. Our
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| 7 | panelists this morning are Jim May from the Washington
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| 8 | College of Law at American University; George Smith from
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| 9 | the Stern School of Business at New York University;
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| 10 | Louis Galambos from the Johns Hopkins University; and
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| 11 | Tony Allan Freyer from the School of Law at the
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| 12 | University of Alabama.
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| 13 | Ed, do you have any introductory comments you
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| 14 | would like to make?
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| 15 | MR. ELIASBERG: Thanks, Ken.
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| 16 | Let me just second how important the Antitrust
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| 17 | Division thinks it is for us to take a look back at
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| 18 | these major monopolization cases of the past, so with
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| 19 | that, let me turn it back to you again so we can get
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| 20 | started.
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| 21 | MR. GLAZER: Thanks, Ed.
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| 22 | So, at this point, let me introduce our first
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| 23 | speaker. Jim May is a law professor at the Washington
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| 24 | College of Law at American University, where he teaches
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| 25 | antitrust, U.S. legal history. He was an attorney with |
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| 1 | the Antitrust Division and senior staff assistant to the
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| 2 | National Commission for the Review of Antitrust Laws and
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| 3 | Procedures. He is the author of many law review and
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| 4 | other articles on the historical foundation of U.S.
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| 5 | antitrust law. He is about a year away from completing
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| 6 | a book entitled Standard Oil Company Versus United
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| 7 | States, the Supreme Court, and the Foundations of a New
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| 8 | American Society, which will be published by the
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| 9 | University Press of Kansas.
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| 10 | Complete biographical information for each of
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| 11 | the four speakers can be found on the FTC and DOJ
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| 12 | Antitrust Division Sherman Act Section 2 web sites.
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| 13 | Now, I will turn it over to Professor May.
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| 14 | DR. MAY: Well, I am very pleased to be here
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| 15 | this morning with everyone and to be part of this very
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| 16 | distinguished panel, and I want to thank Ed and Ken and
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| 17 | Jack and Jim and everyone who has been responsible for
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| 18 | pulling this session together.
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| 19 | This morning we are talking about insights to be
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| 20 | gained from historical scholarship, and I am not going
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| 21 | to talk at length about that, but certainly we know that
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| 22 | there are many. There are benefits for better
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| 23 | understanding the past in its own terms, some having
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| 24 | considerable value, but also better insight in our
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| 25 | thinking about modern day issues. History often |
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| 1 | provides a useful point of comparison or contrast or a
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| 2 | source of additional questions and perspectives we might
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| 3 | not consider otherwise, and it can help to inform modern
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| 4 | decision-making in a variety of ways.
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| 5 | Historical writing comes from people from a
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| 6 | variety of different disciplines and backgrounds, as
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| 7 | well as a variety of personal perspectives, business
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| 8 | historians, legal historians, intellectual historians,
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| 9 | economists, legal scholars, and others, and all of this
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| 10 | work can be very valuable to take into account and to
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| 11 | compare one with another.
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| 12 | When we talk about the potential value of
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| 13 | looking back at early episodes and periods of antitrust
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| 14 | law in particular, as Ken has said, there is much to be
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| 15 | learned, and particularly much convincing to convince
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| 16 | people in the antitrust field that looking at the
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| 17 | Standard Oil story may, in fact, be of some value in
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| 18 | thinking about antitrust law, where it has been, how it
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| 19 | got here and where we are today.
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| 20 | Now, in his landmark book, The Antitrust
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| 21 | Paradox, in 1978, Judge Robert Bork famously remarked
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| 22 | that one of the uses of history is to free us from a
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| 23 | falsely imagined past. Understanding antitrust's past
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| 24 | better allows us to understand more clearly how many of
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| 25 | the ideas that are currently in the mainstream first |
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| 1 | came to be established in antitrust law. At the same
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| 2 | time, for example, historical understanding, I think,
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| 3 | provides insight into how early antitrust thinking was
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| 4 | not merely a less sophisticated early form of
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| 5 | neoclassical economic thought, how variations from
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| 6 | modern economic analysis that we find in earlier
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| 7 | antitrust analysis do not merely reflect the power of
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| 8 | "non-economic" concerns uninformed by any systematic
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| 9 | theoretical approach, and a look to the past also can
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| 10 | give us insight into how much of early antitrust debate,
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| 11 | legislation, lawyering, and judicial decision-making was
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| 12 | influenced by a different kind of theoretical outlook,
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| 13 | an outlook that embraced as a part of, and not simply
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| 14 | alongside of, its economic analysis, simultaneous
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| 15 | concerns for individual opportunity, freedom of
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| 16 | contract, efficiency, economic progress and prosperity,
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| 17 | fair distribution of wealth, and political freedom, all
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| 18 | to be promoted through a process of largely
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| 19 | "non-discretionary" judicial decision-making, it was
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| 20 | still widely thought, in the late 19th and early 20th
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| 21 | Centuries.
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| 22 | Such an outlook, still widely if not universally
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| 23 | influential at the time of the Standard Oil decision, of
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| 24 | course, today runs deeply counter to antitrust thinking
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| 25 | across the entire spectrum of antitrust opinion. Modern |
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| 1 | antitrust thinking assumes the inevitability of
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| 2 | trade-off choices among these various values and is
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| 3 | influenced strongly by a modern economic paradigm or
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| 4 | paradigms distinctly different from the broader
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| 5 | theoretical outlooks most familiar in the late 19th and
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| 6 | early 20th Century lawyers and judges.
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| 7 | Okay, but that having been said, I want to talk
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| 8 | about something else this morning, and that is a
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| 9 | different set of issues arising in connection with the
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| 10 | rise of the Standard Oil combination and the federal
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| 11 | antitrust case brought to challenge it. This is a very
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| 12 | big topic, indeed, and a very great deal has been
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| 13 | written about it, and in the very brief time I have this
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| 14 | morning, I am just going to try to suggest some of the
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| 15 | most important themes in the historical record and in
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| 16 | the scholarship assessment. If we have time this
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| 17 | morning in the discussion period to go into more depth
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| 18 | as to some of these points, I will be happy to try to do
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| 19 | so.
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| 20 | Okay, well, with regard to the ascent of
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| 21 | Standard Oil and the challenge to it by the Federal
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| 22 | Government, well, to begin with just a single small
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| 23 | refining plant established in Cleveland, Ohio in the
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| 24 | mid-1860s, John D. Rockefeller and his associates,
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| 25 | within a remarkably short period of time, came to |
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| 1 | dominate both trade in refined petroleum products and
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| 2 | the long distance pipeline transportation of crude oil.
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| 3 | Exactly how that was accomplished was a subject of
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| 4 | considerable controversy in the late 19th and early 20th
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| 5 | Centuries, and it has continued to be ever since.
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| 6 | As we know, Standard rose to dominance before
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| 7 | the era of the automobile, and thus, its main product in
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| 8 | the era that we are talking about was not gasoline, but
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| 9 | was kerosene for illumination in homes and businesses,
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| 10 | but there were other important products as well, such as
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| 11 | lubricating oil and naphtha.
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| 12 | Now, within just a few years of Rockefeller's
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| 13 | entry into oil refining, he and his associates were
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| 14 | heavily involved, along with the railroads that were
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| 15 | serving the oil fields of Northwest Pennsylvania, in
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| 16 | efforts to establish cartels to reduce production and
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| 17 | raise and stabilize prices.
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| 18 | By 1871 -- oh, here, I have a few pictures
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| 19 | that -- this is in 1870. This was Standard Oil's
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| 20 | refining operation. It obviously got bigger and much
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| 21 | more substantial as time went on.
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| 22 | Now, in the 1860s, on to the 1870s, we have
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| 23 | these efforts to cartelize refining as well as rear it,
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| 24 | but by 1871 as well, Rockefeller had embarked on a
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| 25 | successive campaign to acquire what is called the |
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| 1 | competing refiners in Cleveland, Ohio, and not long
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| 2 | thereafter, disenchanted with the possibilities for
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| 3 | desirably organizing the oil industry through
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| 4 | cartelization, Rockefeller and his associates made
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| 5 | determined and successful efforts to acquire the
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| 6 | refiners in other parts of the country as well.
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| 7 | Now, coordination of the operations of the
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| 8 | various acquired firms was achieved first through the
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| 9 | trust arrangements of 1879 and 1882, and then more
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| 10 | effectively, through the 1899 establishment of the
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| 11 | Standard Oil Company of New Jersey as a holding company.
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| 12 | Transportation of crude oil to refineries and of
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| 13 | refined products to market was a crucial dimension of
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| 14 | the early oil business, and early on, transportation of
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| 15 | both crude oil and refined products was by rail, and
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| 16 | critics charged that the railroads had charged Standard
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| 17 | Oil much lower freight rates than they charged
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| 18 | Standard's competitors, thereby giving Standard what was
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| 19 | seen as an unfair competitive advantage.
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| 20 | Later on, with the development of long distance
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| 21 | crude oil pipelines that were pioneered by a consortium
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| 22 | of crude oil producers in the late 1870s, this newer
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| 23 | mode of transport became the most important method for
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| 24 | transporting crude oil, and Standard made determined and
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| 25 | successful efforts to dominate it. |
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| 1 | With the discovery of the major new oil field on
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| 2 | the Ohio-Indiana border, Standard Oil for the first time
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| 3 | made significant investment in oil lands and crude oil
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| 4 | production in the late 1880s. Standard Oil aggressively
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| 5 | expanded forward as well into retail marketing, and as
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| 6 | of the 1890s, this would have been a ubiquitous site in
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| 7 | America, the horse-drawn Standard Oil wagons filled with
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| 8 | kerosene from which the local grocery, et cetera, would
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| 9 | be getting their fill.
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| 10 | Now, during the decades following the
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| 11 | establishment of the first Standard Oil refinery, the
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| 12 | combination expanded the size of its individual
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| 13 | refineries to achieve economies of scale, found other
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| 14 | ways to cut costs, developed an effective managerial
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| 15 | hierarchy that included talented executives who joined
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| 16 | Standard Oil after their own firms were acquired and
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| 17 | developed new by-products from petroleum, yet John D.
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| 18 | Rockefeller and Standard Oil faced growing public and
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| 19 | private criticism and in the fear for their dominance
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| 20 | and for the abusive tactics they were thought to use,
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| 21 | and as a result, Standard Oil ultimately was challenged
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| 22 | in numerous states before the federal case was
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| 23 | litigated.
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| 24 | In 1882, the trust itself -- the 1882 trust
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| 25 | itself was dissolved. In the 1890s, in the wake of a |
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| 1 | challenge to the participation of Standard Oil's Ohio
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| 2 | trust, a challenge brought by the Attorney General of
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| 3 | Ohio. This then led in 1899 to the establishment of the
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| 4 | Standard Oil Company of New Jersey as the new holding
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| 5 | company. Seven years later, during the administration
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| 6 | of President Theodore Roosevelt, the antitrust suit was
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| 7 | brought.
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| 8 | Now, Standard's market position we have to look
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| 9 | at in two different parts with regard to the export
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| 10 | trade and the domestic trade. In the late 19th Century,
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| 11 | most refined petroleum that was produced in the U.S. was
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| 12 | sold overseas, and of that oil, Ron Chernow in his
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| 13 | recent book Titan estimates that in the late 1880s,
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| 14 | nearly 80 percent of the refined oil purchased overseas
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| 15 | came from Standard Oil.
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| 16 | With regard to domestic trade in oil, by the
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| 17 | late 1870s, Standard's share of refined oil production
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| 18 | within the United States was close to 90 percent. It is
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| 19 | estimated that Standard's market share of crude oil
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| 20 | production in the United States was a share of one-third
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| 21 | achieved in 1898. Most of those market shares declined
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| 22 | in subsequent years.
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| 23 | Okay, well, what about the antitrust challenge?
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| 24 | And one of the things that is always great about this
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| 25 | period, the cartoons of the period, here is the classic |
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| 1 | fear of Roosevelt swinging his big stick to bust the
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| 2 | trusts, here facing down a symbol of Standard Oil in
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| 3 | this period of the octopus.
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| 4 | Okay, well, I am going to largely skip over the
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| 5 | Government's position except to say that the Government
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| 6 | charged a conspiracy that allegedly had started in
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| 7 | 1870 -- oh, the case was filed on November 15th of 1906,
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| 8 | so we are just short of three weeks away from the great
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| 9 | centennial of the filing of this case, so hopefully
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| 10 | there will be both a Division and FTC celebration in
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| 11 | just a few weeks.
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| 12 | Okay, the Government's primary emphasis in its
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| 13 | case was a merger-to-monopoly theory. The predatory
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| 14 | pricing and other bad acts conduct was much less
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| 15 | prominent, although also included in the case.
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| 16 | Now, let us talk about the case in hindsight
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| 17 | just a little bit, okay? Here is a young John D.
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| 18 | Rockefeller in the early days of the conspiracy, okay?
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| 19 | Here are some other things stressed in the case: Market
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| 20 | shares, profits, alleged increases in prices of
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| 21 | principal products, okay? But I want to go quickly
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| 22 | through this.
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| 23 | Now, the remedy in the case, of course, was
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| 24 | breaking up Standard Oil. This is not an exact diagram
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| 25 | of how the breakup worked, neither accurate in its |
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| 1 | verticality nor in the number of units involved, but it
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| 2 | is the best I have. So, in any case, what are we left
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| 3 | with in the scholarship today about Standard Oil as we
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| 4 | think about the case in hindsight? A couple of key
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| 5 | things to note.
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| 6 | What was right about the Government's position
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| 7 | in the case? How might the case be approached
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| 8 | differently today, informed by historical as well as
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| 9 | economic learning? Some things seem clear. A modern
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| 10 | Sherman Act case would be unlikely to focus on a
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| 11 | defendant's market intelligence gathering or the
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| 12 | operation of bogus independents, as the Government did,
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| 13 | in part, and likely would place less reliance on
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| 14 | evidence of increased profitability. Analysis of merger
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| 15 | activity, predatory pricing and barriers to entry would
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| 16 | be more sophisticated today than it was in the earlier
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| 17 | years of the 20th Century, although merger to monopoly
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| 18 | essentially would remain at the heart of the case. More
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| 19 | consideration would be paid today to potential economies
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| 20 | of scale and other efficiencies, and in hindsight, more
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| 21 | careful attention would be paid to the question of what
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| 22 | would be an appropriate remedy in the case.
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| 23 | I have things I can say about the remedy, but we
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| 24 | are short on time. I will save that for the discussion
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| 25 | session in case there are questions about that. |
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| 1 | Okay, now, what about the scholarship on the
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| 2 | rise of Standard Oil and the question of remedy? Well,
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| 3 | it is very striking the degree to which -- there is
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| 4 | actually some vigorous disagreement about what we would
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| 5 | think might be some very basic issues, such as was
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| 6 | Standard Oil, in fact, a monopolist? And if a monopoly
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| 7 | had been achieved, a monopoly of what? Pointing to
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| 8 | increasing output and falling prices for refined
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| 9 | petroleum products in the late 19th Century, Dominic,
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| 10 | Arendt and Connell, for example, has concluded that
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| 11 | Standard Oil never reached or set monopoly prices, even
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| 12 | when it had a high market share, and "Standard was a
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| 13 | large competitive firm in an open competitive market," a
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| 14 | position that has been strongly challenged by, for
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| 15 | example, Professor Scherer in a draft paper he presented
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| 16 | in an earlier hearing session in this series.
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| 17 | Elizabeth Granitz and Benjamin Klein in their
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| 18 | 1996 article contend that entry into refining was made
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| 19 | easy in the late 19th Century and assert that "although
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| 20 | Standard earned a significant share of industry profits
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| 21 | on its dominant refining operations, it was petroleum
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| 22 | transportation and not refining that was monopolized,"
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| 23 | and that "the profits earned by Standard in refining
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| 24 | should be thought of as merely a share of the monopoly
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| 25 | profits from the transportation cartel." Others |
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| 1 | continue to believe that at least until the early years
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| 2 | of the 20th Century, it was possible to acquire monopoly
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| 3 | power in the sale of refined petroleum products and that
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| 4 | Standard Oil did so.
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| 5 | What is the state of thinking about the sources
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| 6 | of Standard Oil's profits? Today we have not one but a
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| 7 | number of prominent interpretations. Let me just say a
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| 8 | real brief word about some of these, and then maybe I
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| 9 | can expand later.
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| 10 | One is economies of scale or other efficiencies.
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| 11 | Alfred Chandler, an eminent business historian, has
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| 12 | declared that oil refining is a prime example of an
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| 13 | industry in which cost advantages of scale critically
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| 14 | shape the growth of firms and determine the structure of
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| 15 | the industry. He notes that the Standard Oil Company
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| 16 | was one of the first enterprises in the world to exploit
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| 17 | the economies of scale by making the three key
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| 18 | interrelated investments in production, market and
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| 19 | management.
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| 20 | Others have pointed to other varieties of
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| 21 | efficiency achieved by Standard Oil as significant
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| 22 | contributors to its success. On the other hand, others
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| 23 | have questioned at least the magnitude of some of the
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| 24 | efficiencies claimed by Standard Oil.
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| 25 | A second explanation has again focused, |
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| 1 | understandably, on the large number of mergers and
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| 2 | acquisitions, either coerced or uncoerced, that Standard
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| 3 | Oil is seen to have engaged in.
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| 4 | Another major area that Ken already alluded to,
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| 5 | of course, is predatory pricing, and it was noted by the
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| 6 | United States in the briefs but not central to its
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| 7 | theory of the case, it was famously debunked by John
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| 8 | McGee in his 1958 article reflecting the influence of
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| 9 | Aaron Director at the University of Chicago. McGee we
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| 10 | know declared the claims of predatory pricing in the
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| 11 | Standard Oil case were neither in theory nor by direct
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| 12 | evidence, but scholarly commentary since McGee's article
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| 13 | has been split on whether Standard Oil may ever have
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| 14 | engaged in predatory pricing, and, if so, how much this
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| 15 | may have contributed to its acquisition or maintenance
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| 16 | of monopoly power.
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| 17 | Okay, Elizabeth Granitz and Benjamin Klein, in
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| 18 | the article we mentioned previously, have presented a
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| 19 | much discussed thesis embracing a raising rivals' cost
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| 20 | interpretation of Standard's power, and this
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| 21 | interpretation is, as we know, that it was
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| 22 | transportation, not refining, that could be monopolized.
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| 23 | The railroads wanted some help with enforcing a cartel
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| 24 | among railroads. They had an incentive to want Standard
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| 25 | Oil to have a large volume of shipments that could be |
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| 1 | moved around among the railroads to enforce compliance
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| 2 | with the railroads' cartel agreement, so that the
|
| 3 | railroads were happy to let Standard Oil be in a more
|
| 4 | dominant position in refining to serve that function. I
|
| 5 | am happy to talk about that more at greater length, too.
|
| 6 | Okay, now, I think that we do not need much
|
| 7 | convincing to think that people in the antitrust field
|
| 8 | look to Standard Oil in a variety of ways, as a symbol,
|
| 9 | and as a detailed case record to be examined as new
|
| 10 | theories of antitrust action become prominent; thus, as
|
| 11 | Aaron Director had articulated a very different approach
|
| 12 | to predatory pricing, it is not entirely surprising that
|
| 13 | John McGee comes up with an article looking back at
|
| 14 | Standard Oil and drawing an explicit moral, which is we
|
| 15 | cannot get Standard Oil wrong, says Professor McGee,
|
| 16 | because it can be taken to stand for the wrong
|
| 17 | proposition, that what we should be looking out for is
|
| 18 | unilateral abusive conduct by dominant firms, and if we
|
| 19 | got it wrong in the first place about Standard Oil, we
|
| 20 | should not be paying that much stress to that behavior.
|
| 21 | We should be worried about group behavior than
|
| 22 | unilateral behavior.
|
| 23 | Similarly, at a time when theories of raising
|
| 24 | rivals' costs have become prominent in antitrust law, we
|
| 25 | get an article reflecting those ideas and trying to |
21
| 1 | compare them to the extensive record in the Standard Oil
|
| 2 | case in the Granitz and Klein article, and again,
|
| 3 | drawing an explicit moral, saying the Standard Oil case
|
| 4 | tells us that this is a valid kind of theory, but
|
| 5 | warning -- take it only so far and not further. Take it
|
| 6 | only so far as situations where there is a horizontal
|
| 7 | agreement upstream, and worry about the horizontal
|
| 8 | combination aspect, not the vertical aspect.
|
| 9 | Well, I will stop there since I am about out of
|
| 10 | time. There is much for us to mine and give serious
|
| 11 | consideration given the scholarship on Standard Oil and
|
| 12 | the federal challenge to it, and historical scholarship
|
| 13 | relating to American business, the economy and antitrust
|
| 14 | law in general, and again, I thank you very much for
|
| 15 | organizing this event and look forward highly to
|
| 16 | discussing these possibilities.
|
| 17 | (Applause.)
|
| 18 | MR. GLAZER: Thank you very much, Professor May.
|
| 19 | Our next speaker is George Smith. He is a
|
| 20 | Clinical Professor of Economics and International
|
| 21 | Business at the Stern School of Business at New York
|
| 22 | University. Among the courses he teaches at Stern is
|
| 23 | U.S. business history. He is the author of From
|
| 24 | Monopoly to Competition: The Transformations of Alcoa,
|
| 25 | 1888 to 1986, and was co-author with Frederick Dalzell |
22
| 1 | of Wisdom From the Robber Barons. He has a book coming
|
| 2 | out again called The Concise History of Wall Street.
|
| 3 | Professor Smith?
|
| 4 | DR. SMITH: Thank you. Good morning. I am
|
| 5 | delighted to be here.
|
| 6 | I am not going to repeat what Jim said about the
|
| 7 | value of history. As an economist, or at least someone
|
| 8 | who teaches economics, I am going to assume that you
|
| 9 | already understand that, but suffice it to say that I am
|
| 10 | going to deal with the case history here, and one of the
|
| 11 | things that historians bring to the party is that
|
| 12 | through our studies, we get very much involved in what
|
| 13 | we would call "the nonrational" or "the extraeconomic"
|
| 14 | aspects of policy and its enforcement, and we also worry
|
| 15 | about the consequences of particular decisions and
|
| 16 | actions and can reflect on those. It is hard to
|
| 17 | generalize from one case study, but an accumulation of
|
| 18 | case studies over time might be useful in guiding policy
|
| 19 | in the future.
|
| 20 | This is the Alcoa case, which, of course, is a
|
| 21 | famous, if not notorious, case in antitrust law, and I
|
| 22 | am also going to assume that all of you at some point in
|
| 23 | your education have read, if not in its entirety, at
|
| 24 | least some excerpts from the decision written by Judge
|
| 25 | Learned Hand. My understanding is that the Alcoa case |
23
| 1 | is a staple of law school education.
|
| 2 | The Alcoa case, of course, describes one of the
|
| 3 | important boundaries of the law in antitrust with
|
| 4 | respect to size and power and market dominance, and it
|
| 5 | is important for that reason. I am going to take you a
|
| 6 | little bit through the Alcoa history, the history of the
|
| 7 | case, but I want to focus most importantly on the
|
| 8 | remedies and some of the consequences of the remedies.
|
| 9 | Let's begin with Alcoa in 1937. This is Alcoa's
|
| 10 | market share in 1937. It is pretty good, you know,
|
| 11 | having 100 percent of the market in your core
|
| 12 | businesses, aluminum production, extracted from aluminum
|
| 13 | oxide, or alumina, also a big capital-intensive
|
| 14 | business. Alcoa also controlled the critical imputs, in
|
| 15 | this case the bauxite ore and alumina, at 100 percent
|
| 16 | market share, in what we quaintly describe as the U.S.
|
| 17 | market. Remember the days when the U.S. market was the
|
| 18 | only relevant market? Right? Alcoa had 100 percent,
|
| 19 | that is pretty good!
|
| 20 | It also had robust positions in downstream
|
| 21 | markets in various aluminum semifabricated and end
|
| 22 | products, as you can see from the table on the right.
|
| 23 | Suffice it to say that Alcoa was a sitting duck for the
|
| 24 | antitrust lawyers in the second Roosevelt Administration
|
| 25 | who were mounting a rather frontal assault on big |
24
| 1 | business in the late 1930s.
|
| 2 | Alcoa is, of course, one of the great
|
| 3 | Chandlerian firms, and like Standard Oil, managed to do
|
| 4 | business by not only achieving economies of scale and
|
| 5 | scope but by bringing the prices of its product
|
| 6 | consistently down in order to expand its markets. In
|
| 7 | that sense, it was a rather good and benign monopoly.
|
| 8 | Some of the practices it engaged in, in order to
|
| 9 | build that monopoly, would now be considered to be
|
| 10 | somewhat dubious if not outright illegal, but the
|
| 11 | company managed during a period of time -- when it had
|
| 12 | what looked like a controlling patent in the aluminum
|
| 13 | smelting process -- to achieve substantial scale
|
| 14 | economies and was integrated completely from the
|
| 15 | extraction of the ore from the mines all the way down to
|
| 16 | the production of end products, which was a completely
|
| 17 | self-sufficient enterprise, and in the process, Alcoa
|
| 18 | created substantial barriers to entry that nobody was
|
| 19 | able to penetrate in the production of primary aluminum.
|
| 20 | Alcoa secured its position with the help --
|
| 21 | although not exclusively -- of some exclusive contracts
|
| 22 | with suppliers of scarce inputs, like hydropower,
|
| 23 | bauxite, alumina, and developed its own research and
|
| 24 | development capabilities with respect not only to the
|
| 25 | technology, but also the science of metallurgy, and |
25
| 1 | built one of the great industrial laboratories in the
|
| 2 | first half of the 20th Century.
|
| 3 | Alcoa also relied, of course, on the U.S.
|
| 4 | Government to keep tariff protection high enough to
|
| 5 | restrain imports, and it established operations in
|
| 6 | Canada, which proved to be very useful for managing
|
| 7 | relations with cartels, European cartels, which strictly
|
| 8 | divided markets along national lines and relegated the
|
| 9 | North American market to the Canadian company, a market
|
| 10 | that was, in fact, serviced by Alcoa.
|
| 11 | During the period of time that Alcoa was
|
| 12 | building its monopoly, it was constantly reducing its
|
| 13 | costs and prices in order to establish markets and built
|
| 14 | its markets largely by taking share away from other
|
| 15 | metals, other substances, copper, nickel, iron and
|
| 16 | steel. By World War I, there were no new entrants in
|
| 17 | primary production. One French firm had attempted to
|
| 18 | enter, but when World War I broke out, it left the
|
| 19 | field.
|
| 20 | It is not that Alcoa was left alone. Alcoa was
|
| 21 | always in the cross-hairs of the Department of Justice
|
| 22 | and later on the FTC. In 1911, it was subject to an
|
| 23 | antitrust investigation, and Alcoa agreed to cancel all
|
| 24 | its exclusive supply contracts, to refrain from directly
|
| 25 | participating with foreign cartels. The Canadian |
26
| 1 | subsidiary continued to do so but apparently with the
|
| 2 | blessing of the Justice Department for some years to
|
| 3 | come. Alcoa also agreed to refrain from such downstream
|
| 4 | practices as price discrimination, and market
|
| 5 | allocations of aluminum products.
|
| 6 | In the 1920s, Alcoa went through a rather
|
| 7 | lengthy and continuous investigation from the Federal
|
| 8 | Trade Commission. Reports were written, but no action
|
| 9 | was taken, but this led to an awful lot of bad
|
| 10 | publicity, and then Alcoa was subject to a lot of
|
| 11 | private antitrust suits from customers, the most
|
| 12 | important of which was a case known as Baush v. Alcoa,
|
| 13 | which went through two trials, two sets of appeals, and
|
| 14 | wound up being settled out of court. It was a
|
| 15 | price-squeezing issue.
|
| 16 | In 1937, Alcoa was charged with violating the
|
| 17 | Sherman Act, it reflected a big policy shift in the
|
| 18 | Roosevelt Administration, the second Roosevelt
|
| 19 | Administration. Alcoa at that time, as I mentioned
|
| 20 | before, was a real sitting duck for the Justice
|
| 21 | Department. It was a monopoly, it had a poor public
|
| 22 | image, it had the misfortune of being closely tied to
|
| 23 | Andrew Mellon, who was a great scapegoat for the Great
|
| 24 | Depression. The accumulation of antitrust
|
| 25 | investigations over a period of time had also made it a |
27
| 1 | likely target. So, it was charged with the usual
|
| 2 | kitchen sink of antitrust violations in 1937, but as
|
| 3 | luck would have it, Alcoa wound up with a trial judge
|
| 4 | that it liked, Judge Caffey, in the U.S. District Court
|
| 5 | for the Southern District of New York, and this is where
|
| 6 | some of the interesting stories begin.
|
| 7 | It turns out Alcoa had a superb trial lawyer
|
| 8 | named William Watson Smith who led the defense of its
|
| 9 | case. He was an older gentleman who had read the law --
|
| 10 | that is how he learned the law -- and he and Judge
|
| 11 | Caffey seemed to have bonded very nicely in the
|
| 12 | courtroom. Irving Lipkowitz, who was the economist for
|
| 13 | the DOJ at the time, and who sat through the entire
|
| 14 | trial, described the situation as follows: "The judge
|
| 15 | and Mr. Smith were the old guys. They had wisdom. They
|
| 16 | had judgment. And we had a bunch of kids over here,
|
| 17 | scurrying around..." Right! He also recalled that
|
| 18 | Smith was very prone to calling the DOJ lawyers boy
|
| 19 | scouts during the trial, and the Judge never bothered to
|
| 20 | intervene.
|
| 21 | The Judge, however, as this trial went on -- it
|
| 22 | turned out to be the longest trial in Anglo-American
|
| 23 | history -- the Judge got rather angry and impatient, and
|
| 24 | I think he essentially blamed the Justice Department for
|
| 25 | this trial. In any case, Alcoa was able systematically |
28
| 1 | to refute -- through their expert witness and company
|
| 2 | witnesses and through its own presentation of the case
|
| 3 | -- all of the behavioral charges brought by the Justice
|
| 4 | Department, and Arthur Vining Davis, the Alcoa chairman,
|
| 5 | delivered rather stunning, persuasive testimony over a
|
| 6 | period of time. In the end, the Judge, of course, ruled
|
| 7 | in favor of Alcoa on the grounds that it had built a
|
| 8 | good business, it had brought prices down, and it, in
|
| 9 | fact, fell within the rule of reason as a benign, good
|
| 10 | trust.
|
| 11 | Of course, the Justice Department announced its
|
| 12 | intention to appeal, and Judge Caffey said, great, get
|
| 13 | it out of my room courtroom! That is what they did. Of
|
| 14 | course, the appeal languished during World War II, when
|
| 15 | the Government had no interest in disturbing the
|
| 16 | operations of businesses that were supplying critical
|
| 17 | war material, but in 1944, the appeal was heard
|
| 18 | following an Act of Congress, which enabled the U.S.
|
| 19 | Court of Appeals in the Second Circuit to hear the case
|
| 20 | in lieu of the Supreme Court because too many of the
|
| 21 | Supreme Court Justices had conflicts of interest in this
|
| 22 | case.
|
| 23 | In the meantime, a number of important things
|
| 24 | happened in the industry environment. As the war geared
|
| 25 | up in 1941 -- as the United States was preparing for |
29
| 1 | war, it became apparent that Alcoa, as dominant as it
|
| 2 | was in the industry, was not going to be able to meet
|
| 3 | aluminum demand for military operations, and so the
|
| 4 | Government financed the building of primary aluminum as
|
| 5 | well as fabricated aluminum plants, and effectively
|
| 6 | doubled U.S. aluminum capacity between 1941 and 1943.
|
| 7 | Alcoa, of course, built and managed all these
|
| 8 | plants, but at the same time, it opened the door for new
|
| 9 | entrants in primary production. And as the war wound
|
| 10 | down, it was quite clear that Alcoa managers were
|
| 11 | anticipating that they were going to face some
|
| 12 | competition in all sectors of the aluminum markets.
|
| 13 | Then there was the great opinion written by
|
| 14 | Learned Hand in 1945 (I have extracted some of the
|
| 15 | quotes here), in which he entirely rejected the idea
|
| 16 | that the monopoly of Alcoa had been thrust upon them or
|
| 17 | was inevitable, and he also rejected the doctrine of the
|
| 18 | rule of reason. It was quite clear that Learned Hand,
|
| 19 | through some rather sophisticated economic thinking,
|
| 20 | determined that Alcoa simply had too much market power
|
| 21 | and was thereby forestalling possibilities for
|
| 22 | innovation and long-term price competition.
|
| 23 | He writes in his opinion in very beautiful
|
| 24 | prose, "It was not inevitable that it [Alcoa] should
|
| 25 | always anticipate increases in the demand for ingot and |
30
| 1 | supply them, to keep doubling and redoubling its
|
| 2 | capacity. We can think of no more effective exclusion
|
| 3 | of competitors than progressively to embrace every
|
| 4 | opportunity as it opened, and to face every newcomer
|
| 5 | with new capacity already geared into a great
|
| 6 | organization, having the advantage of experience, trade
|
| 7 | connections and the elite of personnel."
|
| 8 | Now, I teach in a business school. This is what
|
| 9 | we try to teach our students how to do!
|
| 10 | "Having proved that 'Alcoa' had a monopoly of
|
| 11 | the domestic ingot market, the plaintiff had gone far
|
| 12 | enough; if it was an excuse that 'Alcoa' had not abused
|
| 13 | its power," and he found no evidence that it had, "it
|
| 14 | lay upon 'Alcoa' to prove that it had not. But the
|
| 15 | whole exercise is irrelevant anyway, for there is no
|
| 16 | excuse for 'monopolizing' a market that the monopoly has
|
| 17 | not been used to extract from the consumer more than a
|
| 18 | 'fair' profit." It was all beside the point! The whole
|
| 19 | decision can be reduced to this single paragraph.
|
| 20 | And then, in what seems on the surface like a
|
| 21 | wildly nostalgic passage -- although I think in
|
| 22 | retrospect I would argue that what he was really trying
|
| 23 | to do was establish what the thinking of Congress was in
|
| 24 | 1890 when it passed the Sherman Act -- Judge Hand says,
|
| 25 | "Congress did not condone 'good trusts' or condemn 'bad' |
31
| 1 | ones; it forbade them all," which is saying if you want
|
| 2 | to change the law, change the law, change it, but I
|
| 3 | cannot do anything about it. "It is possible to prefer
|
| 4 | a system of small producers, each dependent for his
|
| 5 | success upon his own skill and character," and so forth.
|
| 6 | Now, from the point of view of Alcoa, of course,
|
| 7 | this looked like a superb exercise in reductionist
|
| 8 | reasoning, and Leon Hickman, who was an attorney on the
|
| 9 | case for the defense, a gentleman in his nineties when I
|
| 10 | interviewed him, looked back at this case and said, "I
|
| 11 | can see why Judge Hand felt that no matter how we got to
|
| 12 | where we were, that it was not in the public interest.
|
| 13 | If you kept that in mind, then you worked back from
|
| 14 | that. 'What do I pin on them?' The fact that we were
|
| 15 | the first in every market that we opened up.
|
| 16 | "But suppose that we had acted as a monopoly is
|
| 17 | supposed to act, and we simply sat back and took our
|
| 18 | profits and had not developed the market? You would say
|
| 19 | now that there is a monopoly of action. There is a
|
| 20 | great need for new markets and the uses for aluminum and
|
| 21 | you are not meeting it. So, in a way, from his
|
| 22 | approach, we had no escape. He'd get us either way."
|
| 23 | What was the remedy? Well, obviously one
|
| 24 | potential remedy was to break up the company, but
|
| 25 | fortunately, there were all these government plants |
32
| 1 | sitting there from World War II, and Judge Hand thought
|
| 2 | this might be a good remedy, and Stuart Symington, who
|
| 3 | had been the CEO of Emerson Electric and eventually a
|
| 4 | Senator from Missouri, was head of the Surplus Property
|
| 5 | Board, and through a lot of painful negotiations, he
|
| 6 | managed to persuade Alcoa to allow the Government to
|
| 7 | sell off these plants in a fire sale into two would-be
|
| 8 | competitors, Kaiser and Reynolds Corporations, so that
|
| 9 | they could establish themselves as fully integrated
|
| 10 | aluminum producers. And part of the deal was that Alcoa
|
| 11 | would license critical patents in technology to these
|
| 12 | companies, free of charge.
|
| 13 | In a subsequent court ruling, Aluminum Limited,
|
| 14 | which was Alcoa's Canadian affiliate, was effectively
|
| 15 | spun off as the shareholders in both companies had to
|
| 16 | unwind their position in one or the other, so that there
|
| 17 | would be no longer any issues about participating in
|
| 18 | cartels.
|
| 19 | Now, my concern in writing the book was to look
|
| 20 | at the impact of this decision on Alcoa's behavior, and
|
| 21 | here is where things get really interesting. There were
|
| 22 | a number of consequences to the remedies which I think
|
| 23 | are worth thinking about today. There is no question
|
| 24 | that once this oligopolistic industry structure was
|
| 25 | established, there was a lot greater competition in |
33
| 1 | developing new products, especially end products. This
|
| 2 | was largely due to the efforts of Reynolds, which had a
|
| 3 | particularly high sensitively to end markets, so all
|
| 4 | kinds of new aluminum products appeared, everything from
|
| 5 | baseball bats to aluminum cans in which you drink your
|
| 6 | beer and your soda pop, and aluminum siding and so
|
| 7 | forth, and that was probably an okay thing.
|
| 8 | But it is also quite clear when reading the
|
| 9 | testimony of congressional hearings that throughout this
|
| 10 | period, aluminum prices, both for primary aluminum and
|
| 11 | probably many downstream products, might have been
|
| 12 | higher than they needed to be, because Alcoa always had
|
| 13 | to keep a pricing umbrella over its less efficient
|
| 14 | competitors to ensure that they stayed in business.
|
| 15 | Alcoa worried about this a lot, and there was lots of
|
| 16 | internal documentation of this. Alcoa had an economist
|
| 17 | named Stanley Malcuit who wrote extensively about how
|
| 18 | Alcoa conducted its pricing operations. The idea was to
|
| 19 | keep prices low enough to ensure that demand would grow
|
| 20 | but high enough at the same time to ensure that the
|
| 21 | competition would stay in business, and these prices
|
| 22 | were administered through conventional oligopolistic
|
| 23 | price signaling.
|
| 24 | A couple of things that probably people did not
|
| 25 | understand very well was that the Alcoa Laboratories, |
34
| 1 | which had been a great scientific laboratory -- very
|
| 2 | productive in advancing the fundamental science in
|
| 3 | metallurgy and its related chemistry -- saw its focus
|
| 4 | change after the war. The laboratory replaced its
|
| 5 | scientists with more engineers, focused on short-term
|
| 6 | process and product engineering. It withdrew from the
|
| 7 | academic community -- where it had traditionally worked
|
| 8 | closely with universities, participated in conferences,
|
| 9 | gave papers and so forth -- and it became more
|
| 10 | secretive.
|
| 11 | It began to rely more on trade secrets as
|
| 12 | opposed to patents to protect its technology, and it is
|
| 13 | quite clear that although Alcoa had a store of
|
| 14 | fundamental knowledge it could draw on by the 1950s, by
|
| 15 | the mid-1960s, early 1970s, that fundamental knowledge
|
| 16 | was pretty well depleted, and Alcoa and the industry as
|
| 17 | a whole became less technologically innovative.
|
| 18 | And finally, the management of Alcoa during this
|
| 19 | period spent probably an inordinate amount of time, if
|
| 20 | not most of its time, worrying about complying with the
|
| 21 | antitrust remedies. Alcoa remained under court
|
| 22 | jurisdiction all the way through 1957, and the business
|
| 23 | of Alcoa's top management was to make sure that the
|
| 24 | company was in compliance, and so long-term planning and
|
| 25 | fundamental thinking about resource allocation took a |
35
| 1 | back seat to these considerations, and there is some
|
| 2 | question as to whether that was, again, good or bad for
|
| 3 | the industry.
|
| 4 | I think the larger question I would raise here
|
| 5 | and something I hope we can discuss subsequent to the
|
| 6 | presentations today -- is how much do policy-makers and
|
| 7 | attorneys who bring cases or actions think about the
|
| 8 | second and third-order consequences of remedies? I
|
| 9 | know, obviously, there is a long history of economic
|
| 10 | analysis and the evolution of economic analysis as it
|
| 11 | applies to antitrust and the thinking of the FTC and the
|
| 12 | Department of Justice. But in recent years, as
|
| 13 | antitrust seems to be increasingly focused on changing
|
| 14 | firm behaviors as opposed to looking for structural
|
| 15 | remedies in a global economy, I would just like to
|
| 16 | suggest that new methods in game theory and futuristic
|
| 17 | planning scenarios might be better incorporated into the
|
| 18 | way antitrust lawyers think about remedies and the
|
| 19 | possibilities of what might occur pursuant to their
|
| 20 | implementation.
|
| 21 | So, I will leave it there, and we will turn it
|
| 22 | over to Lou.
|
| 23 | (Applause.)
|
| 24 | MR. GLAZER: I will introduce Lou. Our next
|
| 25 | speaker is Louis Galambos. He is a Professor of History |
36
| 1 | at John Hopkins University, has written extensively on
|
| 2 | the historical development of America's
|
| 3 | telecommunications system. His publications include
|
| 4 | Competition and Cooperation, The Role of Innovation in
|
| 5 | the Modern Bell System, and Anytime, Anywhere, a study
|
| 6 | of early wireless development.
|
| 7 | Professor?
|
| 8 | DR. GALAMBOS: Now, as you have already figured
|
| 9 | out, you cannot talk about business history without
|
| 10 | talking about Alfred D. Chandler, Junior. His books are
|
| 11 | very long, and so I will try to give you a very short
|
| 12 | explanation. His books are kind of chest-crushers. If
|
| 13 | you read them and you fall asleep, they come down on you
|
| 14 | and hurt, so I will try to give you a little bit on Al
|
| 15 | and what he did to the history of business.
|
| 16 | When he started his career after the Second
|
| 17 | World War, at that time, the dominant historical
|
| 18 | paradigm for business, which was very closely attuned
|
| 19 | with the view of the Department of Justice and later the
|
| 20 | FTC, was provided by Matthew Josephson, who was the
|
| 21 | author of a very popular book called The Robber Barons.
|
| 22 | It had a lot of personality, you know, like the columns
|
| 23 | on the two sides of the Wall Street Journal, a lot of
|
| 24 | personality there and a lot of quotes. It was published
|
| 25 | in the depths of the Great Depression, and it focused on |
37
| 1 | scoundrels who ran and robbed corporations and the
|
| 2 | American people.
|
| 3 | In the years that followed, business historians
|
| 4 | responded to that by trying to show that the scoundrels
|
| 5 | were really good guys. This has also been done in
|
| 6 | women's history, it is called worthy woman history, so
|
| 7 | the business leaders were really doing a whole lot, and
|
| 8 | it was great for America, and they were builders, not
|
| 9 | robbers.
|
| 10 | Chandler set out to develop a new context for
|
| 11 | business history, and by the time he retired, he is now
|
| 12 | Professor Emeritus at the Harvard Business School, he
|
| 13 | had achieved that. He and his students had established
|
| 14 | a new context for looking at business.
|
| 15 | Now, Chandler built and constructed this on the
|
| 16 | basis of two bodies of theory, one of which you have
|
| 17 | heard about and one of which you have not. One was a
|
| 18 | sociological theory stemming from Max Weber through
|
| 19 | Talcott Parsons' study, and the other is Joseph
|
| 20 | Schumpeter's theory of modern capitalism. He changed
|
| 21 | both of these. Probably most people don't read
|
| 22 | Schumpeter, but they have heard of creative destruction,
|
| 23 | which you see often in newspapers.
|
| 24 | I once lived in Texas, where they condemned
|
| 25 | Joseph Schumpeter because he had once been in a |
38
| 1 | socialist government. They never bothered to read him.
|
| 2 | He was a great friend of capitalism.
|
| 3 | What Chandler did was he built up a dynamic,
|
| 4 | comparative history of the role of large corporate
|
| 5 | enterprise and tracked its progress in the early 19th
|
| 6 | Century through the end of the 20th, and he used the
|
| 7 | idea of Schumpeterian entrepreneurship, but he looked to
|
| 8 | organizational capabilities rather than heroic
|
| 9 | individuals. The organizations that were successful
|
| 10 | over the long term, he said, were those that made the
|
| 11 | vital three-pronged investments in an effective
|
| 12 | managerial hierarchy, in mass production, and in mass
|
| 13 | distribution, and most of the large second industrial
|
| 14 | revolution firms he looked at combined those two
|
| 15 | functions, combined distribution and mass production.
|
| 16 | Chandler left no doubt about the positive impact
|
| 17 | of large enterprise over the long run, and I quote, "the
|
| 18 | modern industrial enterprise played a central role in
|
| 19 | creating the most technologically advanced,
|
| 20 | fastest-growing industries of their day. These
|
| 21 | industries...were the pace setters of the industrial
|
| 22 | sector of their economies -- the sector so critical to
|
| 23 | the growth and transformation of national economies into
|
| 24 | their modern, urban industrial form."
|
| 25 | He did this in very careful, meticulous, |
39
| 1 | historical studies, the first of the United States, then
|
| 2 | a comparative study with Germany and the United Kingdom
|
| 3 | added, then finally, near the end of his career, he
|
| 4 | brought Japan into the picture and a list of other
|
| 5 | countries.
|
| 6 | The Chandlerian construct became linked very
|
| 7 | closely to developments in two other disciplines that I
|
| 8 | just want to mention. In economics, Richard Nelson and
|
| 9 | Sidney Winter developed an evolutionary theory of
|
| 10 | economic change and tried to bring in dynamic elements,
|
| 11 | all right, as opposed to comparative static or static
|
| 12 | analysis of the neoclassical kind of equilibrium
|
| 13 | analysis. Their effort carried them from theory into
|
| 14 | history, from a discussion of national innovation
|
| 15 | systems, a great book that you might want to look at,
|
| 16 | into the sources of industrial leadership. This left
|
| 17 | them close to the context in which Chandler was working,
|
| 18 | as did the work done in transactions costs economics by
|
| 19 | Oliver Williamson and others. Williamson, like the
|
| 20 | evolutionary economist, was introducing historically
|
| 21 | particular elements to theory, and when you think about
|
| 22 | that, you can see that it does strange things to theory
|
| 23 | when you add history. It was moving it toward a view
|
| 24 | that had very strong historical elements, just as was
|
| 25 | Paul David, who is an economist at Stanford, who was |
40
| 1 | working on path dependency, which had the same impact.
|
| 2 | All I am suggesting here is that the context in
|
| 3 | which scholars, a large number of them, placed and
|
| 4 | analyzed big business was changing in important ways.
|
| 5 | The comparative static analysis of industrial
|
| 6 | organization theory was co-existing at this time with
|
| 7 | dynamic styles of analysis with important elements of
|
| 8 | place- and time-related history, and they were all
|
| 9 | answering that great question that Coase asks, "Why Are
|
| 10 | There Firms?" If markets are more efficient, why do
|
| 11 | firms exist at all? A great question, all right, and
|
| 12 | there were a lot of new answers developing for that.
|
| 13 | Now, similar changes were taking place at the
|
| 14 | same time in management studies. Management scholars
|
| 15 | were now devoting a lot of attention to the environment
|
| 16 | external to the firm, the aspects of the environment
|
| 17 | that affect the firm's capabilities, and that yielded
|
| 18 | innovation over the long term, and everything I am going
|
| 19 | to talk about touches on this: the difference between
|
| 20 | long-term analysis and short-term analysis, between what
|
| 21 | is called static or comparative statics and secular or
|
| 22 | dynamic analysis of the kind I am talking about. So,
|
| 23 | they looked at how firms responded to drastic changes in
|
| 24 | their technological environment.
|
| 25 | This work added something important to the |
41
| 1 | Chandlerian concept, because Al had focused most of his
|
| 2 | attention on successful firms. (Aside: he was my
|
| 3 | second mentor; I followed him at Johns Hopkins, took the
|
| 4 | position that he had, did the same things that he did,
|
| 5 | so you should be aware of that.)
|
| 6 | The firms he studied were what are called at the
|
| 7 | Harvard Business School "Chandler firms". They were all
|
| 8 | successful, okay? So, they were very carefully
|
| 9 | selected, all right? And after some of them failed, he
|
| 10 | did not follow them through. He stopped his history at
|
| 11 | when they were successful, had a very strong positive
|
| 12 | element. He also ignored the political history, the
|
| 13 | administrative state. And scholars at business schools
|
| 14 | have, since that time, begun to look seriously at the
|
| 15 | political dimension of the large corporation.
|
| 16 | Now, at the same time that this was happening,
|
| 17 | in the seventies and the eighties and the nineties,
|
| 18 | significant changes were taking place out beyond the
|
| 19 | academy where academic research was being done by
|
| 20 | historians, economists and management scholars. The
|
| 21 | world was changing in a significant way. After the
|
| 22 | breakdown of Bretton Woods and the decisions by the
|
| 23 | leading OECD countries to foster relatively free trade,
|
| 24 | the world entered the second great phase of
|
| 25 | globalization, and along with that came the third |
42
| 1 | industrial revolution, and these two forces changed
|
| 2 | things in very dramatic ways for the United States and
|
| 3 | for our view of competition.
|
| 4 | Now, that, I believe, is the context in which we
|
| 5 | have to place the antitrust case against AT&T in the
|
| 6 | 1970s and the subsequent developments that have taken
|
| 7 | place in telecommunications.
|
| 8 | The Bell System had done all the right things
|
| 9 | according to the Chandler paradigm. They had done those
|
| 10 | three things, and really well, okay? They knew that
|
| 11 | aside from Sweden, they were the best telecommunications
|
| 12 | system in the world. They told little telephone jokes:
|
| 13 | that in France, half of the people are waiting for a
|
| 14 | telephone, and they were right, and the other half, they
|
| 15 | said, are waiting for a bell tone. They could make
|
| 16 | these jokes about almost every country. When I went to
|
| 17 | Italy, and this has been in the recent past, the last
|
| 18 | time I was in Italy, I was looking for a touchtone phone
|
| 19 | so I could get on my phone in Baltimore and check
|
| 20 | messages. After looking around, I went into a good
|
| 21 | hotel and I used the only touchtone phone I could find.
|
| 22 | But that still didn't work, and I listened carefully,
|
| 23 | and could hear da-da-da-da. It was a dial phone with a
|
| 24 | touchtone top on it. Italy was far behind and our
|
| 25 | telephone people knew this. They knew that they had |
43
| 1 | done all of this and done it extremely well.
|
| 2 | Bell had not only done that but created a very
|
| 3 | powerful social ethic to the company; in addition to
|
| 4 | service, it embraced a network mystique in the Bell
|
| 5 | System that pervaded the enterprise. Bell Labs was a
|
| 6 | marvelously creative institution. It had developed
|
| 7 | crucial elements of the modern telephone technology.
|
| 8 | And it is significant that Bell is where the transistor
|
| 9 | came from, out of Bell Labs. This was what created the
|
| 10 | information age.
|
| 11 | In the 1970s, American productivity was drifting
|
| 12 | toward zero. Productivity gains reached zero in the
|
| 13 | beginning of the 1980s. This helps you understand why
|
| 14 | we had political change at that time. Productivity
|
| 15 | increases account for two-thirds of our growth in the
|
| 16 | 20th Century, and they were going to zero, and the
|
| 17 | Japanese were doing really well, and the Germans were
|
| 18 | doing really well, and we were doing poorer than the
|
| 19 | British. Could you believe that? We were doing poorer
|
| 20 | than the British. So, we were in trouble, economically.
|
| 21 | So, it was in that context, then, that the case took
|
| 22 | place.
|
| 23 | The Bell accomplishments I've mentioned
|
| 24 | establish a pretty impressive record, and so it helps
|
| 25 | you understand why AT&T leaders ignored their own |
44
| 1 | history, because, in part, that history was not in the
|
| 2 | Chandler paradigm. When the modern Bell System was
|
| 3 | being created in the years before World War I and during
|
| 4 | its subsequent history, AT&T had compromised with public
|
| 5 | authority, and in my courses, I always distinguish
|
| 6 | between two kinds of monopolists, dumb monopolists and
|
| 7 | smart monopolists.
|
| 8 | AT&T became, under the leadership of Theodore
|
| 9 | Vail, a smart monopolist. That is why they could
|
| 10 | maintain that monopoly for such a long period of time in
|
| 11 | a country that was opposed to it, all right? They did
|
| 12 | the right things. Their social ethic and their behavior
|
| 13 | and their performance was extremely important.
|
| 14 | But at a crucial point in the early 1970's, AT&T
|
| 15 | forgot about that. It threw down a gauntlet to the DOJ
|
| 16 | and FTC and said, "We are great, and we want to stay
|
| 17 | just like we are." The DOJ picked up the gauntlet,
|
| 18 | brought a suit against AT&T, and by the end of the
|
| 19 | decade, the company's leaders saw they were losing the
|
| 20 | case, losing the federal case in Judge Green's court.
|
| 21 | AT&T settled out of court by breaking up the Bell
|
| 22 | System.
|
| 23 | Now, at that crucial point in the development of
|
| 24 | our telecommunications network, the largest in the
|
| 25 | world, AT&T's leaders and the Government both shifted |
45
| 1 | gears. Now, they paid too much attention to history and
|
| 2 | too little attention to those two changes that were
|
| 3 | taking place in the global economy; that is,
|
| 4 | globalization, with intense competition, and the third
|
| 5 | industrial revolution.
|
| 6 | The settlement opted for the Chandlerian
|
| 7 | vertically integrated model, with AT&T keeping what was
|
| 8 | then called the Western Electric business and Bell Labs.
|
| 9 | It sacrificed the so-called Baby Bells -- no babies any
|
| 10 | longer -- and the local networks. AT&T gave away the
|
| 11 | mobile phone business it had created! (I have my cell
|
| 12 | phone on. It is on vibrate, I hope yours are, too.)
|
| 13 | So, underestimating the changes that would take
|
| 14 | place from the top to the bottom of the organization,
|
| 15 | AT&T struggled and then failed to implement a successful
|
| 16 | strategy. AT&T failed to make the transition to
|
| 17 | competition and adopted the strategy of convergence,
|
| 18 | which failed. The market worked, and AT&T recently had
|
| 19 | a rendezvous with creative destruction, okay? There's
|
| 20 | AT&T out there, but it is not the historical AT&T we
|
| 21 | have been discussing.
|
| 22 | I probably should not be so harsh with AT&T's
|
| 23 | leaders, because the Government seems to have been
|
| 24 | similarly unmindful of the changes taking place in the
|
| 25 | global economy. There was no consideration in the |
46
| 1 | antitrust case of the Bell System's efficiency. It was
|
| 2 | ruled out. There was no consideration of the remarkable
|
| 3 | innovations that Bell Labs had produced. I was told by
|
| 4 | somebody at DOJ that if the Government wanted a lab, it
|
| 5 | could build one -- just like that, as if it did not take
|
| 6 | 30 or 40 years to really create an effective
|
| 7 | institution. You just build one, you know, if you want
|
| 8 | one. That was the attitude.
|
| 9 | There was no consideration of the vast market
|
| 10 | for telecom equipment that was being thrown open to
|
| 11 | foreign suppliers. There was no consideration of
|
| 12 | whether deregulation might not serve the public interest
|
| 13 | better than structural settlements under the Sherman
|
| 14 | Act. There was, instead, dedication to a policy that
|
| 15 | was rooted in the past when the most important market
|
| 16 | was the American market, when American public policy
|
| 17 | could be framed almost entirely in matters of the
|
| 18 | domestic economy.
|
| 19 | Now, subsequent to that decision -- a very
|
| 20 | important one, the United States Government seems to
|
| 21 | have learned faster than did the large integrated
|
| 22 | corporation or the subdiscipline of business history.
|
| 23 | The United States changed its antitrust policy in the
|
| 24 | 1980s. There were no more structural cases under
|
| 25 | Section 2 of the Sherman Act until the Clinton |
47
| 1 | Administration launched its attack on Microsoft.
|
| 2 | Fortunately, from my point of view, attention to global
|
| 3 | competition and a need for the United States to remain
|
| 4 | competitive in the world economy seems to have modified
|
| 5 | even the Microsoft settlement in ways that are suited to
|
| 6 | the world we actually live in.
|
| 7 | This is a different world from the one that was
|
| 8 | at the heart of Chandler's history, and business
|
| 9 | historians have recently begun to come to grips with
|
| 10 | that. There is an important work by Naomi Lamoreaux,
|
| 11 | Dan Raff and Peter Temin who are providing a new
|
| 12 | understanding of business history. This work and
|
| 13 | related studies are shifting the field and helping us to
|
| 14 | understand why in the United States we are spinning off
|
| 15 | and de-integrating firms. As this new synthesis of
|
| 16 | business history suggests, this is a world economy
|
| 17 | rapidly being reconstructed by information technology
|
| 18 | and intense global competition.
|
| 19 | So, my conclusion is twofold: First, do not
|
| 20 | ignore your history or you may suffer, as the Bell
|
| 21 | System did, and Bill Gates almost did, and second, do
|
| 22 | not get locked into an historical model when major
|
| 23 | changes in the political economy are taking place and
|
| 24 | new ideas are needed. And both conclusions bring me
|
| 25 | back, I believe, to an evolutionary model broadly |
48
| 1 | conceived.
|
| 2 | Thank you.
|
| 3 | (Applause.)
|
| 4 | MR. GLAZER: Thank you, Professor Galambos.
|
| 5 | Our last speaker this morning is Tony Freyer.
|
| 6 | He teaches legal history at the University of Alabama
|
| 7 | Law School. His publications include Regulating Big
|
| 8 | Business: Antitrust in Great Britain and American, 1880
|
| 9 | to 1990, and the recently published Antitrust and Global
|
| 10 | Capitalism, 1930 to 2004.
|
| 11 | Professor?
|
| 12 | DR. FREYER: I want to repeat as my colleagues
|
| 13 | on the panel, I really feel honored to speak before you
|
| 14 | today. In that book that was just mentioned, I spent
|
| 15 | about 13 years interviewing antitrust enforcers around
|
| 16 | the world as well as business people and drawing on the
|
| 17 | scholarship of the members of the panel, and so I am
|
| 18 | grateful to be able to speak and share some thoughts at
|
| 19 | a program like this.
|
| 20 | Also, I was really surprised when I got the
|
| 21 | invitation that there would be attention to business
|
| 22 | history at an enforcement agency, and so I am really
|
| 23 | grateful for the opportunity to say something about
|
| 24 | that.
|
| 25 | What I would like to begin with is to just think |
49
| 1 | about what do enforcers need to be aware of when it
|
| 2 | comes to history, and I would like to suggest a couple
|
| 3 | of things that historians can provide a view for. One
|
| 4 | is a sense of change, and one is a sense of choices that
|
| 5 | either have been forgotten or ignored and that those
|
| 6 | forgotten sources of change may be useful in
|
| 7 | appreciating kind of the current situation, whatever the
|
| 8 | current problem, in this case dominance, might be
|
| 9 | concerned with.
|
| 10 | So, to do that, I would just like to give you
|
| 11 | two quotes, kind of one way to think about what are
|
| 12 | alternatives to what you have in your mind now as kind
|
| 13 | of the current enforcement options with regard to
|
| 14 | dominance, and the first is a quote from Barry Hawk, who
|
| 15 | we all know is a U.S. merger lawyer who runs the Fordham
|
| 16 | Antitrust Policy Program that is comparative, and he
|
| 17 | said, "for good or ill, we shall have to live throughout
|
| 18 | most of the world with clones of Article 81 and 82.
|
| 19 | That means dominant firms' behavior will be more closely
|
| 20 | scrutinized than would be the case if the Sherman Act's
|
| 21 | Section 2 were the model."
|
| 22 | Eleven years later, the OECD Journal of
|
| 23 | Competition Law and Policy published the results of a
|
| 24 | worldwide survey of all major antitrust regimes. The
|
| 25 | U.S. antitrust regime's core objectives -- the U.S. core |
50
| 1 | competition objectives were exceptional in that they
|
| 2 | combined solely the achievement of greater economic
|
| 3 | efficiency with promoting and protecting the competitive
|
| 4 | process. So, what did the other major antitrust regimes
|
| 5 | do, all of the other except the few such as the United
|
| 6 | States, they combined the core competition objectives
|
| 7 | with what were called public interest objectives.
|
| 8 | So, the United States is basically the outlier
|
| 9 | when it comes to enforcement in the dominance area, and
|
| 10 | I would like to just suggest that by comparison, there
|
| 11 | may be some choices that might be useful to look at to
|
| 12 | rethink or at least understand our current approach to
|
| 13 | dominance, but at the same time, one of the things that
|
| 14 | comes from this comparative perspective is that those
|
| 15 | regimes, antitrust regimes, have arrived at their
|
| 16 | enforcement policies, that is, including public
|
| 17 | interest, because particularly of the business history
|
| 18 | of their particular countries.
|
| 19 | All right, what I would like to do, first of
|
| 20 | all, just to give you just a very quick comparison of
|
| 21 | two kinds of histories of two antitrust regimes,
|
| 22 | originally I had grand ideas of giving you Australia and
|
| 23 | Japan as well as the EU and the United States, but now I
|
| 24 | am just going to have to give you a couple of thoughts
|
| 25 | about the EU and the U.S. in particular, and hopefully I |
51
| 1 | can bring up the Japanese and the Australian material
|
| 2 | later on in our discussion.
|
| 3 | What I would like to first of all note is just
|
| 4 | it is helpful to remember, it has come up in the
|
| 5 | discussion, that the U.S. did arrive at its antitrust
|
| 6 | approach because it reflects these ingrained values that
|
| 7 | are distrustful of established authority. Now, what is
|
| 8 | the alternative? What is the alternative to ingrained
|
|