USDOJ: Environment and Natural Resources Division, Market Study: EAST EVERGLADES REPORT

SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS
VARIABLE	FINDINGS	RECOMMENDED ACTION
Project Influence	There is no evidence to suggest that either the NPS announcement of the expansion of Everglades National Park or The Corps of Engineers announcement of its changes to the L31-N canal had any measurable impact on the value of the freshwater wetlands.	An appraiser or analyst should not make any adjustment for Project Influence.
Financing	There is evidence that seller financing has an upward impact on price, even after making mathematical cost equivalency adjustments.	Owner financed transactions should be avoided, if possible, for other than agricultural use tracts. Appraisers should rely on cash or third-party financed sales for other than agricultural use sales. There is no evidence that price is affected by owner financing for agricultural use properties.
Market Conditions (Time)	Our study of many land sales in the freshwater wetlands uncovered no persuasive evidence of any change in the price per acre directly associated with the date of sale. Neither Recreational use land sales nor Agricultural land use sales changed due to changes in the date of sale, 1974-1997.	No adjustment necessary for date of sale (Market Conditions).
Property Size	There is strong evidence that "size" is a significant factor for properties generally based on size categories, especially 6-15 acres, 15-55 acres and >100 acres. There is a modest ½%/acre decrease in $/acre as a continuous variable, but this adjustment is not meaningful unless there are very large differences between the size of the comparable sales and the subject. Size is often an interaction variable. For example, a 6-15 acre tract on a paved road or a 6-15 acre tract near a bridge sold for significantly different prices than can be explained by either size or proximity.	Limit comparable sales to similar sized properties generally within the size categories identified within the study. Pay particular attention to 6-15 acre sales on paved roads, 6-15 acre tracts near a bridge and 15-55 acre tracts on dirt/grass roads as statistically significant, distinct markets.
Location	Sales within the Dade county Overlay Ordinance (within Management Areas) sold for a significantly different (lower) price than sales not governed by the Overlay Ordinance. Sales near one of the four bridges across the L31-N canal sell for substantially more than other sales. If there is no all weather road providing direct access to a parcel, being within a mile of a paved road probably affects the value.	Select comparable sales located within the Overlay Ordinance if the subject is within the area governed by the Overlay ordinance. Pay attention to the proximity of the subject or comparables to one of the bridges crossing the L-31N canal. Check for proximity to a paved road if the subject or comparables do not have either a paved or gravel/limestone road providing direct access.
Land Use Regulations	There is good evidence that this variable is a significant factor influencing land prices, specifically regarding restrictions on use imposed by the Management Area overlay zone. Properties in MA-1 and MA-3B sell for substantially more than parcels in other management areas, and parcels in MA 2 sell for less than parcels in other management areas.	There are too many other variables that affect value to directly measure the dollar impact of the numerous regulations, all other variables held constant. Select comparable sales to be relied upon from those within the overlay zone. Refer to the study to understand the relative values within each Management Area.
Road Frontage/Access	This variable has a significant influence on land prices, especially with regard to frontage on a paved road, a gravel/limestone road or a dirt/grass road. The data indicates no distinction in price between access by airboat, swamp buggy or foot paths (no vehicular access).	Try to select comparables with the same access/type of frontage as the property under appraisal. We found that properties with dirt road or grass road access sold for about 30% less per acre than p4roperties with all weather access; properties with airboat, swamp buggy or no road access sold for about 40% less per acre than properties with all-weather road access.
Mineral Rights	There is no evidence of any change in the price per acre, for sales in the freshwater wetlands, directly associated with the issue of Mineral Rights.	No adjustment necessary
Severable Use Rights	There is no evidence of any change in the price per acre, for sales in the freshwater wetlands, directly associated with the issue of Severable Use Rights.	No adjustment necessary
Compiled by Pritchett, Ball & Wise, Inc.

MARKET STUDY

EAST EVERGLADES REPORT

FIRST REVISION

03/99

DESCRIPTION OF THE FIRST REVISION

This study revision replaces the original study published 10/21/97.

Following our publication of the original East Everglades study, dated 10/21/97, the U.S. Department of Justice discovered that some of the governmental agencies involved had not sent us sales that may have reflected the impact of "project influence" on the value of land in the freshwater wetlands of south Florida. The exclusion of these sales was an understandable oversight. Agencies had been asked to provide us sales used in appraisal reports for agency land acquisition over a 20-year period. Appraisers, conscious of the Federal Land Acquisition rules, excluded sales as possible comparables if they suspected that the sales reflected "project influence". As a consequence of the exclusion of these sales from our original study, we concluded that the announcement of the East Everglades expansion in December 1989 and the announcement of the Corps of Engineers project in May 1992 had no impact on the value of the subject lands.

The Department of Justice attorneys provided us with 173 additional sales to be considered in a re-examination of our market study conclusions. Some of the additional sales were provided in an attempt to include additional agricultural use sales and sales from management areas (as described by the Dade County Overlay Ordinance discussed below) where the number of sales in the original study database was smaller than desirable. However, most of these sales were included because they may have indicated that "project influence" was a significant variable.

Inclusion of these new sales required a complete re-analysis of the data. We were obligated to geographically locate (geocode) these new sales, inspect the sales and verify the transactional information. Through this process we added a total of 130 sales to the analytical (statistical) study and 147 new sales to the descriptive database. We included sales in the descriptive database even if we learned that they did not represent arms-length transactions, because we want any analyst using the database to benefit from our research. We clearly labeled these "non-market" transactions in the descriptive database. In many circumstances we were required to undertake a lengthy verification process in order to learn that a sale actually did not represent a "market" transaction. Given the imperfect state of real estate transactional information, it is easy for an appraiser to be misled about the third-party nature of a sale. We included only what we believed to be third party, market-based transactions in the analytical study.

In the process of redoing the study, we tested for coding errors and determined that although some errors existed, they did not have a statistically significant influence on our conclusions. We corrected any coding errors that were discovered, thereby increasing the reliability of the revised study. In this second revision we more closely analyzed the potential impact of changes in the market, as reflected by date-of-sale. Our preliminary analysis indicated that although there was no evidence of change in the market 1972-1989, regardless of property type or location, but that there was an indication that sales in four of the Dade County Land Use Overlay Ordinance Management Areas (MA1, MA3A, MA3B and MA3C) increased over time, 1989-1997. Our more detailed research indicates that there is no reliable evidence that there has been a change in value over time.

We have chosen to completely replace the original study with this first revision. Our intention is to permit users to dispose of the original study and replace it with this revision without losing any of the data or information contained in the original report.

I. INTRODUCTION, PURPOSE AND FUNCTION OF THE STUDY

As a part of its program of curative measures for water flowage problems in the project areas, the United States Government is proposing to expand both the Big Cypress National Preserve and the Everglades National Park. Also, the Corps of Engineer's is engaged in a project to construct a levy to protect properties outside of the East Everglades Expansion Area from additional flooding when the water flow into the Everglades National Park is increased. The acquisitions associated with these projects will, in turn, require the services of many appraisers.

In response to a request for proposal dated April 3, 1997, Pritchett, Ball & Wise, Inc. was engaged to perform a market. This market study was performed for the Department of Justice, in cooperation with the National Park Service and the Army Corps of Engineers.

The purpose of this market study is to identify the variables that affect the value of the freshwater wetlands in south Florida. We focused on the quantitative and qualitative legal, locational and physical impacts of the likely causative (independent) variables on the market value of properties in the project area. No value conclusions were estimated for the properties and this study should not be construed as an appraisal of any single parcel. This study includes only vacant or essentially vacant land transactions and does not consider improved properties. This report is specific to the Everglades National Park only. We determined that sales associated with the Big Cypress National Preserve represented a different market area, and we prepared a separate report that is a study of variables affecting the value of the freshwater wetlands on the western side of south Florida.

This study provides (where possible and appropriate) an indication of the direction and the extent to which the independent variables appear to affect the price paid for land in this unusual and ecologically sensitive area. This study is of a scope that is much larger than is usually available to appraisers, and we were able to utilize analytical models that are more sensitive and reliable than generally available to appraisers. However, our best service to appraisers and others who utilize this report is to identify the variables that an appraiser should consider when identifying and adjusting comparable sales. The individual appraiser who is concentrating on a specific subject property is better able to judge the actual impact on price associated with the variables he or she is considering when selecting comparables and making appropriate adjustments.

Once we had accounted for interaction variables (such as size of parcel and proximity to a bridge), we developed a list of 177 potential independent variables that represented the observable factors about the sales and the market area. Only a few of the potential independent variables turned out to have any impact on the value of land in the freshwater wetlands.

The following factors were specifically identified for study in the RFP. Each is described and analyzed separately within the body of this report.

Our investigation and analysis during the performance of this market study uncovered no additional variables that appear to have a significant impact on land values within the East Everglades Expansion Area.

The report is organized to directly address the variables the Department of Justice requested be included in the study. The study took place between June 1, 1997, and December 31, 1998, as revised, and involved four phases: (1) database creation, (2) property inspections, (3) research and analysis, and (4) report preparation. The first phase involved establishing the descriptive database. The sales data was mapped and geocoded on geological survey quadrant maps using longitudes and latitudes up to four significant digits. The properties were inspected either on foot, by swamp buggy, by road vehicle, or by helicopter. Where possible and appropriate, the sales were verified in person or by telephone.

A data book containing a significant sampling of the sales pertinent to this market is included under separate cover and is considered an integral part of this study. Each of the sales was input into the descriptive database utilizing the input form as illustrated in the Addenda as Exhibit A. A sales data sheet that compiles this information for many of these transactions is included in the data book and a sample output form is identified as Exhibit B in the Addenda. Also included with this study is a copy on CD of the database in three forms: 1) the main descriptive database in Microsoft Access software; 2) the statistical analysis data set in Microsoft Excel software; and 3) the paired data analysis data set on Microsoft Excel software. All of the sales directly referenced in this report by Pritchett, Ball & Wise (PBW) Number are reproduced in the data book.

Each variable was analyzed. The findings and conclusions that relate to the East Everglades are presented in this narrative report unless otherwise stated. [The findings and conclusions that relate to the Big Cypress National Preserve are contained in a separate report.] The above processes involved a total of 12 professionals: four MAI designated appraisers, one database management consultant, two statistical market analysis consultants, three senior consultants/appraisers, and two staff administrators.

The database was developed utilizing sales from appraisals of Florida's freshwater wetlands provided by the Department of Justice, the National Park Service, the Corps of Engineers, and the South Florida Water Management District. The appraisals were prepared by the agency's staff appraisers and/or independent fee appraisers. There were a total of 1,129 sales originally considered. After deletions and adjustments to the database (as described in more detail later in this report; see - "Description of Sales Analyzed"), the descriptive database contains a universe of 785 sales, dating from 1972 to 1997. Many of the sale write-ups were of the same transaction as investigated and reported by different appraisers. The publicly recorded factual information was generally the same for these "duplicated" sales, but the comments resulting from the various appraiser's interviews with grantors, grantees, brokers, and other knowledgeable market participants may have differed. We consolidated the various observations and opinions in order to report as full a picture as possible about the conditions of the sale and the motivations of the buyer and seller.

We eliminated duplicates, any sales that included significant structures or improvements, and sales that involved any government agency or entity with the power of eminent domain. This reduced the total database to 785 comparable sales. The technical framework of the database is described in the following section of this report.

To accommodate separate studies and reports for Big Cypress and East Everglades, we divided this data into two databases. The following table provides an overview of the data after this division, focusing on the number of sales transactions in each Expansion Area in their various size ranges. As shown, there are 393 comparable sales within the East Everglades descriptive database and 392 in the Big Cypress descriptive database.

TABLE 1, SALES BY SIZE
Size (Acres)	Big Cypress Sales	East Everglades Sales	Total Sales
0 - 2.5	89	97	186
2.51 - 5.0	140	81	221
5.01 - 10.0	67	62	129
10.01 - 20.0	20	41	61
20.01 - 30.0	3	17	20
30.01 - 40.0	17	28	45
40.01 - 100.0	10	37	47
100.01 - 200.0	21	14	35
200.01 - 300.0	4	3	7
300.01 - 400.0	6	5	11
400.01 - 1,000.0	5	5	10
1,000+	10	3	13
Total	392	393	785
Compiled by Pritchett, Ball & Wise, Inc.

Of the 393 sales in the East Everglades database, 178 are sales of properties consisting of five acres or less. This represents 45% of this database. For Big Cypress, 229 (58%) of the 392 sales were of properties of five acres or less. Graphs which illustrate the data within each database are presented below.

The descriptive database includes a number of transactions to and from Michael Jones for the transfer of severable use rights (SURs), a group of sales that were purchased by an investor (7^th Cavalry Corporation) specializing in real estate tax auction sales, and other non market value transactions, such as sales between related parties. The East Everglades database sales that were eliminated from our analyses, and the reason for elimination, are identified in the following table. The sales remain in the descriptive database for the reference of reviewers and appraisers, but should not be relied upon for comparable sales analysis purposes.

TABLE 2, SALES ELIMINATED FROM STATISTICAL AND PAIRED DATA ANALYSIS DATABASES
PBW No.		Reason for Elimination
1052		Auction of bankrupt corporation
2004		Tax sale
2007		Consolidation among partners
2008		Tax sale
2009		Purchased for SURs
2015		Liquidation
2017		Quit Claim Deed
2075		Related parties
7023		Not an arms length transaction
12007		West Palm County
12152		Broward County
12188		Broward County - commercial gas station
12256		No cash; swap for land in Mexico
12271		Trade for boat parts, not cash
12287		Donation to Micosukee Indian tribe
12306		Donation to Miccosukee Indian tribe-Commercial Land Use
12312		Only commercial property in data / not representative of study
12320		Contract 20 years ago
12325		Contract date unknown
12340		Appraiser's comments said not arm's length
12342		Contract in 1976
12347		Property bartered for groceries
12401		Payment of debt, only asset, debtor left U.S.
12402		Payment of debt, only asset
12404		Distressed sale to son-in-law
12410		Contract for deed
12433		Sale for/of SURs
12436		Purchased for SURs
12438		Sale for/of SURs
12446		Quit claim Deed
12452		Sale for/of SURs
12462		Sale for/of SURs
12466		Tax sale
12467		Sale for/of SURs
12468		Sale for/of SURs
12470		Sale for/of SURs
12472		Sale for/or SURs
12473		Sale for/or SURs
12484		Purchased for house, illegal fill at time of sale
12568		Monroe County
20012		Distressed Sale
20019		Not arms length transaction
20061		Sale for/of SURs
20063		Not arms length transaction
20082		Sale for/of SURs
20083		Sale for/of SURs
20085		Not arms length transaction
20090		Sale for/of SURs
20106		Quit claim deed
20110		Sale for/of SURs
20111	Sale for/of SURs
Compiled by Pritchett, Ball and Wise, Inc.

TABLE 2, CONTINUED. SALES ELIMINATED FROM THE ANALYTICAL DATABASE
PBW No.	Reason for Elimination
20112	Distressed Sale
20114	Not arms length transaction
20116	Incomplete sales information (sale date unknown)
20138	Not arms length transaction
20139	Not arms length transactions
20140	Sale for/of SURs
Total	57
Compiled by Pritchett, Ball & Wise, Inc.

The sales were input into a Microsoft Access database format which consisted of one main sales table, seven subordinate sales information tables, and 11 reference tables. Data on each of the sales was coded within five major headings: location, physical data, sales data, verification, and comments. An attempt was made to reverify the transactions, but given the age of the comparables, some sales could not be reverified with any party to the transaction. All sales provided to us by other sources and relied upon in this study were previously verified by qualified appraisers.

The database was modeled using standard Entity Relationship Diagramming (ERD) techniques to logically model the real estate data entities, attributes, and relationships. The logical data model was then translated into a physical database design by defining table and columns for the logical entities and attributes. Each entity natural key attribute was translated to a table primary key column for unique identification of each table row (record). Relationships were defined between the subordinate sales tables and the main sales table. The corresponding foreign keys were defined between the tables. Various index tables were defined to improve the performance of certain database queries.

The sales table has a "one-to-many" (1-M) relationship with each of the seven subordinate sales tables. In other words, for each main sales record there may be one or more records in each of the subordinate tables. For example, a sale may have one or more legal descriptions depending on how many parcels of land make up the sale.

The purpose of the reference tables is to store the allowable set of values for a field (column) in one of the sales tables. The sales and reference tables are identified in the following chart.

TABLE 3, DESCRIPTION OF TABLES
Table Name	Description
Sales Tables
Sales	Main Sales Table
Sales_Grantee_Verified	Grantee Verification Table
Sales_Grantor_Verified	Grantor Verification Table
Sales_Legal	Legal Description Table
Sales_NPS	National Park Service Tract Number Table
Sales_Regulations	Applicable Land Use Regulations Table
Sales_Road_Frontage	Road Frontage Table
Sales_Water_Frontage	Water Frontage Table
Reference Tables
Areas	Options (values): Big Cypress and East Everglades
Buyer_Motivation	Buyer Motivation Land Use
Counties	All Counties In and Near the Project
Deed_Type	Options (values): Quit Claim, Special Warranty, and Warranty
In _Big_Cypress_Exp	Township, Range, and Section in Big Cypress Expansion Area
In_Corps_Project	Township, Range, and Section in Corps Project
In-East_Ever_Exp	Township, Range, and Section in East Everglades Expansion
In_Near_Municipalities	Township, Range, and Section in or near Municipalities
Interest_Conveyed	Options (values): Fee Simple, Leasehold, and Leased Fee
Municipalities	All Municipalities In and Near the Project
Near_Big_Cypress_Exp	Township, Range, and Section near Big Cypress Expansion
Near_Corps_Project	Township, Range, and Section near Corps Project
Near_East_Ever_Exp	Township, Range, and Section near East Everglades Expansion
Near_Howard_Br_TRS	Township, Range, and Section near Howard St. Bridge
Near_Richmond_Br_TRS	Township, Range, and Section near Richmond St. Bridge
Near_SW_288^th_Br_TRS	Township, Range, and Section near SW 288^th St. Bridge
Near_Tamiami_Br_TRS	Township, Range, and Section near Tamiami Trail Bridge
Part_Type	Partition Type (Ex. E1/4, SW1/4)
Regulations	All Possible Applicable Regulations
States	U.S. States, Canadian Provinces, and Mexican States
Use_Type	Land Use Types
Water_Type	Types of Water Frontage
Compiled by Pritchett, Ball & Wise, Inc.

A detailed listing of the subordinate tables is located in the Addenda, labeled as Exhibit K.

A data file over 41,000 ownership records in the Dade County data file used by the county tax assessors was received from Dade County on CD-ROM. The data file was converted into a Microsoft Access database. The data was used to verify and complete the sales data, particularly the Grantee information, on the Sales database for the East Everglades.

Sales were matched to the Dade County data file by two methods: 1) folio number and 2) owner or Grantee name. Database queries were written to do the matching, matches were hand-checked, and data was taken from the Dade County data file to enter into the Sales database. After data entry for the main Sales database was completed, the data for the East Everglades and Big Cypress areas was converted into separate outputs for statistical analysis by the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. The structure of the selected sales consisted of a set of variables that were defined to SPSS standards for the analysis process (the statistical study).

Each variable in the statistical study was derived from the main Sales database. Other variables were defined between the descriptive database and the selected statistical data to associate two or more variables. For example, variables were defined for property size and accessibility.

Another set of variables was defined to associate size and accessibility, such as 1 to 3 acre sales on all weather roads or 1 to 3 acre sales on dirt/grass roads. These associative or interaction variables were used by SPSS to determine any significant statistical relationships between and among the variables.

There are 336 sales in the data sets used for statistical or paired sales analysis. Of these, 229 are within the Overlay Ordinance (any Management Area). Only three management areas, MA 1 (34 sales), MA 2A (98 sales), and MA 3B (51 sales) proved to have a direct influence on the price of land. Tracts in MA 2A sold for significantly less per acre, all other variables accounted for. Tracts in MA 1 and MA 3B generally sold for more per acre, but the differences were not always statistically significant at the p = 0.05 level of significance. The other management areas (MA 2B, MA 3A and MA 3C) were not statistically significant variables. However, we concluded that in general the market for lands controlled by the Dade County Overlay Ordinance is different than the market for similar land wherein land use is not as closely controlled.

One hundred and seventy-seven (177) sales are in the East Everglades Expansion Area, 58 are "near" (within one mile of) the Expansion Area, and 101 are "not near" (more than one mile from the Expansion Area). These variables were used as a means of estimating potential project influence, and they also help in understanding the impact of the regulatory environment both within and outside the areas governed by the Dade County overlay ordinance. Our analysis shows that the announcement of the federal projects (the expansion of East Everglades National Park and /or the Corps of Engineers project) did not have an influence on the price paid for land.

Eighty-four (84) of the sales were of property used for some type of agriculture at the time the tract was sold or, if agricultural use at the time of the sale could not be determined, at the time we inspected the sale. The rest of the tracts were best classified as a limited recreational land use. The agricultural sales sold for a significantly higher price per acre than the other sales. Consequently, we generally partitioned the sales by land use and made separate comparisons for the agricultural and non-agricultural sales.

Ninety (90) of the sales indicated purchase money notes or other owner financing. The balance of the sales were for cash or third party financing. Very few of the comments indicated that any third party lenders were involved in smaller acreage transactions. The evidence seems to show that owner financing generally increases the price paid for wetlands, even if the terms of the owner financing are similar to terms offered by third-party lenders.

Access to the property is one of the more important variables affecting value. 81 sales have direct access to a paved road and 23 sales on a gravel/limestone road. Both of these types of access affect the price paid for the land. Seventy-seven (77) of the sales indicated a dirt road or grass road access, 76 via either airboat or buggy, 10 by airboat only, 5 by buggy only and 64 with no vehicular access, in which case access is via either helicopter or walking. There is some evidence that direct access by a dirt/grass road is superior to airboat and buggy access, but no evidence that airboat and/or swamp buggy access is superior to no known access.

A total of one hundred and seventy (170) of the sales were within a mile of a paved road, but, by itself, this variable was not significant. However, for parcels without an all weather direct access to the property, proximity to a paved road appears to be a positive influence on price.

Fifteen (15) of the sales were within a mile of one of the four bridges that provide access from the east to the west of the L31-N Canal. This variable made a significant difference in the price paid for land. In some cases, being within a mile of both a major road and a major bridge affected the value of the land.

The analytical data is made up of sales of vacant tracts of land in the freshwater wetlands of south Florida. Much of this land is under water for between three and nine months of the year. Many of the tracts are inaccessible and have very little identifiable functional utility. It is difficult to ascribe rational, economically based motives to the buy-sell decisions. Consequently, there is an unusual degree of variability in the data. Two tracts that appear to have virtually the same objective criteria (date of sale, size, location, physical characteristics, etc.) will often have sold at very different prices. The problem for the analyst is to be able to distinguish between the objective criteria that actually influence the price paid for these freshwater wetlands from the "noise" that comes from a relatively inefficient, unusual real estate market wherein all of the buyers and sellers are not equally well informed or well advised.

One of the essential characteristics of real estate is that it is not fungible. Each parcel is uniquely fixed in space. At the same time we still believe that the economic principal of substitution applies. That is to say that the market value of a property can be determined by comparing the sales of other parcels with similar physical characteristics and similar functional utility. This is the concept embodied in the sales comparison or "market" approach to the appraisal of real estate, and the sales comparison approach is the primary approach applied to the appraisal of vacant parcels. Basic appraisal practice requires that the appraiser select at least three "market value" sales of reasonably comparable properties, and that he or she adjust the comparable sales to make them more like the subject. The adjustments are to be based on indications from the market about the direction and magnitude of value differences associated with observable differences wherein the comparable property is considered to be superior or inferior to the subject property. [For a more detailed discussion of the sales comparison approach, see generally THE APPRAISAL OF REAL ESTATE, ELEVENTH EDITION, The Appraisal Institute, Chicago, IL., 1996, Chapters 18 and 19, pp. 397-446.]

The process of selecting and adjusting comparable sales is an exercise in judgment for the appraisers, but we believe it mirrors the calculus of the market of willing buyers and willing sellers, each equally well informed or well advised. It is important to consider at least three sales because three sales are the fewest number that will indicate the degree of central tendency and dispersion in the market. If all three sales are reasonably similar (i.e. require few adjustments) and if all three indicate about the same price (i.e. indicate a strong central tendency and little dispersion), then the buyer, seller and appraiser generally agree that the market value of the subject is about the value indicated by the adjusted value of the three comparable sales. On the other hand, if the adjusted value of the three sales shows a relatively wide dispersion, the buyer, seller and appraiser are generally dissatisfied and wish to seek out more sales to better indicate the magnitude and direction of adjustments and to better verify the central tendency reflected by the judgment of the marketplace.

Appraisal judgments are based on the appraiser's broad knowledge of the market and are reinforced and refreshed by interviews with market participants as a background to his or her selection and examination of comparable sales. In most cases, when the appraiser is fortunate enough to be working with property in a relatively rational, economically based market, differences in price can be rationally explained by observable differences that objectively reflect differences in the functional utility of the different parcels. Generally speaking, the important differences in functional utility can be uncovered by a careful matched pairs examination of fewer than ten comparable sales. The adjustments can be rationally defended; thereby reducing the dispersion in the data, and the indication of central tendency in the data is clearly reflected by the appraiser's judgment about the market value of the subject property.

Unfortunately, the sales of south Florida's freshwater wetlands have very few of the characteristics of a rational marketplace. Even though there are several hundred sales in the database, there is a wide dispersion of prices within the data and the differences in functional utility between parcels are as extreme.

An analyst faced with an array of data seeks to find information from the data by using measures of central tendency and dispersion. Most of the time, the analyst makes judgments about the information contained in the data based on the indications of central tendency. The three most common descriptions of central tendency are the mean (mathematical average), the median (mid-point of the array), and the mode (most frequently occurring value in the array).

The most common descriptions of the measure of dispersion are the range or extremes of the array and the standard deviation of the data points relative to the mean. The smaller the range and the smaller the standard deviation, the greater the degree of confidence that the analyst can place in judgments based on the central tendency.

The mean and standard deviation are also the most useful descriptive statistics because they are mathematical constructs, which means that they can be measured and compared mathematically. This ability is particularly helpful with data, such as that generated by the subject, where "answers" are not readily apparent.

MARKET STUDY

EAST EVERGLADES REPORT

FIRST REVISION

SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS